Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Guide
Fantasy
Baseball
Baseball
2010 playoff run guide
will be published by
August 1st.
will be published by
August 1st.
As we head into the drafting portion of the 2010 season, the questions continue to come
in. This article is meant to be a general guide for draft strategies to follow for this season.
Other, more in depth articles, will dive into the nuances of particular league formats and
numbers projections.
Question 1: How much is there to position scarcity?
Position scarcity is perhaps the hardest and most controversial topic when it comes to a
fantasy baseball draft. There is something to this, but to a point. My suggestion is that you
make 5 cheat sheets; one for “A” class players, one for “B” class players, etc. Then, in
each class, rank each player according to where you feel they belong, and then note the
position of the player and any key information (statistics that your league uses, injury
status, contract status). When draft day comes, just draft the top guy on the “A” list. When
your “A” list players are all gone, move on the “B” list. When your “B” list is empty, you
would then move onto the “C” list. The “C” list is where you begin to draft for needed
positions.
Although, yes, you may end up with say 5 outfielders, a second baseman, and no starting
pitcher, this always gives you max value for your team, and addresses the position
scarcity issue. Catchers and second baseman are scarce, and although it is most likely
that you will end up with a very average catcher, you will at least have drafted this catcher
in the 10th round instead of a 4th round desperation pick.
This strategy for me has been the most successful of all of the other ones I have tried.
Question 2: What should I watch for when a player is on a new team?
This depends on the position. For pitchers, pay close attention to the defense that the
pitcher has behind him, the type of pitcher he is (ground ball or fly ball), as well as to
ballpark dimensions and weather patterns. A fly ball pitcher leaving San Diego or Los
Angeles and going to Philadelphia will see his ERA rise, whereas a ground ball pitcher
may stay the same or improve.
Some general guidelines to follow:
•All pitchers are only as good as their defense, though pitchers with high strikeout rates
are less susceptible to a bad defense behind them.
•Fly ball pitchers are more influenced by how the ballpark plays out then a ground ball
pitcher.
• Where are balls put into play most often on a pitcher? What is the defense like on his
new team in that area? STATS, Inc. publishes a scouting guide that shows these
tendencies.
•With hitters, what type of pitchers are in their new division, and how do the ballparks play
when compared to the pitchers strengths and weaknesses?
•Did they move from one extreme to another? (like going from Philadelphia to San Diego)
Questions 3: How do you assess risk on players that were injured last season?
This depends on the type of injury, the player’s history of injuries, and types of injuries.
•If the player had an injury that involved structural damage (anything torn or broken), then
watch his progress in spring training closely.
•If the player had a nagging injury (strain, pull, or tendentious, watch how his skills look
while using the previously injured area. For example, if a player pulled his hamstrung,
watch his base running and how good of a jump he gets going after a ball on defense.
•Players who have a history of injuries, especially those that seem to have the same
injury, should be knocked down a peg or two.
Question 4: With pitchers, what stats should I target?
I am not a big fan of chasing wins; a pitcher has little control over his defense or offense.
Instead, I target pitchers with combination of high strikeouts, low walks, and low home
runs allowed, as those are the only stats that a pitcher can directly control. When it comes
to closers, I always try to target at least 1 “lock” closer along the lines of a Mariano Rivera
or Trevor Hoffman, and then fill in accordingly depending on how the draft goes. I usually
have a closer by the 8th round, but never before the 5th.
These are the four most common questions that are posed to me. Feel free to email me
with any further comments or questions, and I will post them here. I plan to post more
format only guides as this week goes, as drafting a AL only head to head team is much
different then drafting for a mixed roto league.
in. This article is meant to be a general guide for draft strategies to follow for this season.
Other, more in depth articles, will dive into the nuances of particular league formats and
numbers projections.
Question 1: How much is there to position scarcity?
Position scarcity is perhaps the hardest and most controversial topic when it comes to a
fantasy baseball draft. There is something to this, but to a point. My suggestion is that you
make 5 cheat sheets; one for “A” class players, one for “B” class players, etc. Then, in
each class, rank each player according to where you feel they belong, and then note the
position of the player and any key information (statistics that your league uses, injury
status, contract status). When draft day comes, just draft the top guy on the “A” list. When
your “A” list players are all gone, move on the “B” list. When your “B” list is empty, you
would then move onto the “C” list. The “C” list is where you begin to draft for needed
positions.
Although, yes, you may end up with say 5 outfielders, a second baseman, and no starting
pitcher, this always gives you max value for your team, and addresses the position
scarcity issue. Catchers and second baseman are scarce, and although it is most likely
that you will end up with a very average catcher, you will at least have drafted this catcher
in the 10th round instead of a 4th round desperation pick.
This strategy for me has been the most successful of all of the other ones I have tried.
Question 2: What should I watch for when a player is on a new team?
This depends on the position. For pitchers, pay close attention to the defense that the
pitcher has behind him, the type of pitcher he is (ground ball or fly ball), as well as to
ballpark dimensions and weather patterns. A fly ball pitcher leaving San Diego or Los
Angeles and going to Philadelphia will see his ERA rise, whereas a ground ball pitcher
may stay the same or improve.
Some general guidelines to follow:
•All pitchers are only as good as their defense, though pitchers with high strikeout rates
are less susceptible to a bad defense behind them.
•Fly ball pitchers are more influenced by how the ballpark plays out then a ground ball
pitcher.
• Where are balls put into play most often on a pitcher? What is the defense like on his
new team in that area? STATS, Inc. publishes a scouting guide that shows these
tendencies.
•With hitters, what type of pitchers are in their new division, and how do the ballparks play
when compared to the pitchers strengths and weaknesses?
•Did they move from one extreme to another? (like going from Philadelphia to San Diego)
Questions 3: How do you assess risk on players that were injured last season?
This depends on the type of injury, the player’s history of injuries, and types of injuries.
•If the player had an injury that involved structural damage (anything torn or broken), then
watch his progress in spring training closely.
•If the player had a nagging injury (strain, pull, or tendentious, watch how his skills look
while using the previously injured area. For example, if a player pulled his hamstrung,
watch his base running and how good of a jump he gets going after a ball on defense.
•Players who have a history of injuries, especially those that seem to have the same
injury, should be knocked down a peg or two.
Question 4: With pitchers, what stats should I target?
I am not a big fan of chasing wins; a pitcher has little control over his defense or offense.
Instead, I target pitchers with combination of high strikeouts, low walks, and low home
runs allowed, as those are the only stats that a pitcher can directly control. When it comes
to closers, I always try to target at least 1 “lock” closer along the lines of a Mariano Rivera
or Trevor Hoffman, and then fill in accordingly depending on how the draft goes. I usually
have a closer by the 8th round, but never before the 5th.
These are the four most common questions that are posed to me. Feel free to email me
with any further comments or questions, and I will post them here. I plan to post more
format only guides as this week goes, as drafting a AL only head to head team is much
different then drafting for a mixed roto league.