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August 25h, 2010:
P
re-season update
               2010 Fantasy Football Draft Guide


Another NFL off season is drawing to a close, and as I write
this only roughly a week remains until the start of 2 a days
begin, turning our minds to our upcoming fantasy football
drafts. Right now, literally hundreds of "experts" are ranking
players in the order in which you should draft them, which is
something I am not going to do. Rather, I will go through some
fundamental drafting tips, and will spare you to have to look at
yet another long list of ranked players.

RULE 1: PLAYER RANKINGS. Player ranking lists have
their place; I always consult a few of them and make a my own
short "hitlist". With my list, I do two things. First, I skip the
obvious. Are you really going to spend that much time
wondering if you should take Chris Johnson over Adrian
Peterson, or Payton Manning over Drew Brees? Second, I
rank the 2nd tier onwards based on their projected statistics
using my league's scoring system. A site like Draft Analyzer
(http://www.draftanalyzer.com/) is a good place to start, though
there is a charge for this service. There may be other such
services out there, but this one is very customizable.  A
service like this is crucial to quickly and effectively ranking the
players you wish to target in the mid to late rounds.

RULE 2:  BYE WEEKS. Now that your players are ranked,
keep a listing of bye weeks at the ready. I am not a fan of
passing on a player because he has the same bye week as
another on your roster, but bye weeks should be paid attention
to when drafting a backup quarterback, a backup kicker, or a
backup team defense.

RULE 3: KNOW THE RULES. This one may seem obvious,
but you would be surprised (or maybe not) at how many
owners show up on draft day without any knowledge of the
rules. To perform step 1 you would have been at minimum
aware of the scoring rules. Past that, how many roster spots
need to be filled? Are there any minimum position
requirements that need to be taken into consideration? For
example, if you must start two quarterbacks each week, as a
league that I am in requires, in a standard 10 men league the
quality will diminish very quickly.

RULE 4: DOES THE "DRAFT A RB" RULE STILL
APPLY?  
Yes and no. With the emergence of the running
back by committee approach in the NFL, it is almost to the
point of having to draft team running backs. Ok, maybe not that
bad, but the decreasing number of feature backs has been felt
in fantasy drafts the past couple of years. Only ten of the top
20 players rated in most pre-draft guides are running backs,
and almost half of those have platoon, injury, or constancy
concerns with them. The rule still applies in the 1st half of the
1st round, but afterwards should be subject to your league
scoring rules. I would still try to stick with the rule of having at
least one running back within the first 3 rounds, though.

RULE 5: TO CUFF OR NOT TO CUFF:  That brings us to
handcuffing. For those of you unfamiliar with this term, it is the
process of drafting your star player's backup, just in case of an
injury or suspension, and is usually only applied to running
backs. With the increased frequency of the running back
committee, handcuffing seems less and less important. Again,
this is something to be applied on a case by case basis. It
may make better sense to draft Reggie Bush instead of
grabbing Javon Ringer to handcuff Chris Johnson.

RULE 6: POSITION RUNS. That tight end you were targeting
in the 10th round suddenly induces a small panic as you
realize that the last 3 picks were all tight ends, and your is
ranked 5th in most fantasy rankings. Instead of panicking and
grabbing a player in a position that you feel is too early,
discipline yourself to exercise restraint and capitalize. Runs
are great times to strengthen your bench, grab that 3rd running
back, or even to sneak in a top ranked defense, while
everyone else is blindly yelling out the next name on the
position rankings list. The golden rule: the only good run to be
a part of is the one that you start.

RULE 7: Player tie breakers.  Ok, now you find yourself in a
predicament....there are 2 or 3 players that you have rated to
be fairly equal, all of which have now fallen to you making your
next pick. Hmm, which to choose. I have 3 items that I look at
in these cases: schedule, bye weeks, and supporting cast. I
will dive into each one, using WR Braylon Edwards and WR
Dexter McCluster as the players to decide between.

First, let's look at schedule. This does not necessarily mean
difficulty of schedule, but rather schedule quality. Confused?
Good. Schedule quality can be broken down like into these
categories: how does a player matchup against the opposing
defenses, what will the weather conditions be like throughout
the season, and how favorable or unfavorable the opposing
teams schedule is down the stretch.

Player matchups against the opposing defenses is the most
complex method. In our example, we will be examining the
Jet's and Chief's oppositions pass defenses. A quick glance
at the schedule, which is all you would have time for during the
draft, shows that the Chief's have an easier schedule against
pass defenses than do the Jets. Point 1 goes to McCluster.

Next up are weather conditions. Both the Jets and Chiefs play
outdoors, and in similar types of wintery climates during the
season. However, the Chiefs are much less likely to face
severe winter weather in December than the Jets would, so
the point here goes to McCluster.

Now let's see who the Chiefs and Jets play down the stretch.
The Chiefs face in order the Broncos at home, the Chargers
and Rams on the road, and the Titans at home on Super Bowl
week. The Jets have the Patriots on the road, the Dolphins at
home, the Steelers on the road, and the Bears on the road.
Ouch. Three road games in bad weather places against
player contenders for the Jets, and a split o road and home
games in relatively moderate weather conditions against 3
playoff contenders. Vote here is for McCluster.

Now, let's look at bye weeks. I know I said before to not follow
the bye week rule to closely, but in this case it may serve to
develop your decision. If your 2 or 3 of your wide receivers
share a bye week with either Edwards or McCluster, drafting
the other one is the obvious choice. If neither do, check the
rest of your roster to determine how the bye week for either of
these two fits in with the rest of your team's bye week schedule.

Last but not least, what sort of supporting cast do they have.
Will Sanchez rebound from his bad 2nd half to be productive,
and will Cassel's line give him enough time to get the ball
away? If Cassel does get the ball away, will he trust a rookie
receiver when he has  Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers to
throw to?

Following these rules, doing your homework, and keeping up
to date on NFL player news and developments, are the keys
to your drafting success. You do not want to be "that guy", you
know, the guy that buys the fantasy football pre-season guide
while he is getting gas on the way to the draft.

Ah, before I go one more thing. Don't drink and draft. Good
luck out there!
                   



                      2010 NFL Draft Analysis - NFC

As promised, here is my analysis on the effects the NFL draft
may have on your fantasy draft for the NFC. I will post an
update after the June 1st release frenzy, and then give my final
fantasy draft analysis in early August.
NFC Teams


1.  Arizona Cardinals:
The Cardinals filled many needs on
defense, but made only a couple of offensive picks in WR
Andre Roberts and TE Jim Dray.
Outlook: The defense
should be a little improved, but not overly so. WR Andre
Roberts is expected to fill the role that WR Steve Breaston
had last year; worth a flier in deep leagues late in the draft.

2.  Atlanta Falcons: This was a lackluster draft for the
Falcons this year. Six of their 7 picks were defensive players
not expected to start, and WR Kerry Meier (6th round) is a 4th
receiver at best.
Outlook: No real impact for draft day.

3.  Carolina Panthers: The Panthers grabbed a couple of
potential contributors in QB Jimmy Clausen and WR Brandon
LaFell. The focus on this draft was at QB, WR, and DB
(accounting for 8 of the teams 10 picks)
Outlook: Clausen will
most likely start the season backing up Matt Moore, but with a
great camp or an injury, could be a starter at some point this
season.

4.  Chicago Bears: The Bears were without a 1st or 2nd
round pick this year, but managed to grab a couple of
potential impact players on defense in DE Corey Wootton and
S Major Wright. Nothing was gained on offense, though.
Outlook: The Bears defense is a bit stronger, but no one was
drafted to contribute on offense.

5.  Dallas Cowboys: WR Dez Bryant has the potential to
start this year. Otherwise, the Cowboys were able to improve
depth on the defensive and offensive lines.
Outlook: Watch
where WR Dez Bryant is on the depth chart in training camp. I
would imagine he would be starting week one.

6.  Detroit Lions: DT Ndamukong Suh was considered the
best player in the draft and will be expected to start week one
in the Motor City. RB Jahvid Best will has explosive speed, as
does WR Tim Toone.
Outlook: Best and Toone are draft
worthy in most leagues, and Suh gives the defensive a punch
upwards into the middle of the pack.

7.  Green Bay Packers: The Packers draft focused on
defensive depth, which the team lacked last year. RB James
Starks is a north south runner worth watching. Outlook: No big
improvements, though keep an eye on Sparks as camp
progresses.

8.  Minnesota Vikings: RB Toby Gerhart was drafted as a
replacement for departed RB Chester Taylor. The team
primarily drafted for depth throughout the rest of its draft.
Outlook: Gerhart is a must draft if you have AP on your team.
He is a good option in the latter rounds otherwise.

9.  New Orleans Saints: Not much drafted that would be of
immediate impact, though the addition of DT Al Woods could
help to solidify the defensive line.
Outlook: Nothing here to
look at on draft day.

10.  New York Giants: The Giants drafted 3 defensive
lineman to add depth to the rotation. No skill players were
drafted on offense.
Outlook: Bump of the team’s defense a
few notches for draft day. Nothing in offense worth noting.

11.  Philadelphia Eagles: DE Brandon Graham was drafted
to be the left ended compliment to DE Trent Cole. The Eagles
used their 13 draft picks as depth builders.
Outlook: The
defense will be much improved, but no offensive players were
added in the draft that can be considered as draftable.

12.  St. Louis Rams: QB Sam Bradford was the 1st overall
pick, and the weight of the franchise is on him. The team
added help on the o-line, as well as WR Mardy Gilyard to give
him a nice target to through to.
Outlook: Bradford is worth
drafting in the middle to late rounds of the draft, especially if
the o-line shows signs of not getting him killed. Gilyard is a
worthy late round draft pick as well.

13.  San Francisco 49ers: The offensive line got a boast
with the drafting of OT Mike Lupati. S Taylor Mays should be
an immediate contributor on defense.
Outlook: Although no
players were drafted that would directly help your team, the
addition of Lupati will increase the value of RB Frank Gore.

14.  Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks drafted primarily for
depth and building, though WR Golden Tate looks to be the
star of this class.
Outlook: Tate is worth a look in the bottom
third of any league’s draft.

15.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DT Gerald McCoy is the
perfect player for the Tampa-2 defensive system, and the
depth added in the draft will help the overall defense. WR Mike
Williams was a steal in the 4th round.
Outlook: The team’s
defense can be pushed up a couple of notches. On offense,
watch the progress of WR’s Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn.

16.  Washington Redskins: The additions of T’s Trent
Williams and Selvish Capers help to shore up an under
performing o-line.  Not much added otherwise.
Outlook: QB
Donovan McNabb and the running backs should benefit from
the additions to the o-line.

2010 NFL Draft Analysis - AFC

As promised, here is my analysis on the effects the NFL
draft may have on your fantasy draft for the AFC. I will
post the NFC next week, then post an update after the
June 1st release frenzy, and then give my final fantasy
draft analysis in early August.

AFC Teams
1.  Baltimore Ravens:
This was depth, project type of a draft
for the team.
Outlook: Nothing that will help this year.

2.  Buffalo Bills: RB CJ Spiller was the best running back in
this year’s draft. DE Torell Troup and Alex Carrington beef up
the defensive line.
Outlook: Spiller will start immediately and
should be draft soon after the 5th round in most leagues.
Buffalo’s defense should see a boast from the additions of
Troup and Carrington.

3.  Cincinnati Bengals: WR Dezmon Briscoe could be the
big contributor of this group, as will be TE Jermaine Gresham.
The defense got a good shit of depth in the middle rounds of
the draft.
Outlook: Watch the performances of Briscoe and
Gresham in training camp and draft accordingly.

4.  Cleveland Browns: CB Joe Haden joins newly acquired
CB Sheldon Brown in what could prove to be one of the best
cornerback tandems in the league. RB Montario Hardesty is
expected to win a starting role out of camp, and QB Colt
McCoy will be in the starting quarterback race.
Outlook:
Watch the camp performances by these players closely.
Hardesty is a for sure pickup in a draft, but McCoy's value
hinges on his pre-season performance as well as the pieces
around him.

5.  Denver Broncos: QB Tim Tebow was an interesting 1st
round pick who is projected as more of a project type of a
player. The Broncos added depth to the offensive line, and a
potential big play receiver in Eric Decker.
Outlook: I would
avoid Tebow unless you are in a dynasty league. Decker
would be a good late round pick, especially with the departure
of WR Branden Marshall. Denver running backs should be a
bit more productive thanks to the improved offensive line.

6.  Houston Texans: CB Kareem Jackson is just one of the
many defensive picks that will make this defense one of the
best in the NFL. RB Ben Tate will get a chance to contribute
immediately.
Outlook: Draft the team defense when the usual
defensive run begins in your draft. Tate is a good 3rd or 4th
back to have in any league.

7.  Indianapolis Colts: Defensive depth was the formula of
this years draft for the Colts, using 6 of their 8 picks on
defensive players.
Outlook: The defense will be a bit better,
but no players of note to consider on draft day.

8.  Jacksonville Jaguars: First round pick DT Tyson Alualu
is an instant starter this season. DT Anthony Smith should also
see some time as well.  The only offensive player in the draft
was RB Deji Karim.
Outlook: The defense may be improved,
but otherwise nothing of note for draft day.

9.  Kansas City Chiefs: S Eric Berry and RB Dexter
McCluster should contribute immediately in week one. The
drafted a lot of pieces that will improve overall depth.
Outlook:
McCluster is a late round pick, but could move up as training
camp progresses. Watch his progress closely as your draft
day nears.

10.  Miami Dolphins: A big defensive draft for the Dolphins;
only 1 of their 8 picks was an offensive player, G John Jerry.
Outlook: Bump up their defense a notch or two with the
added depth, but otherwise nothing to consider for draft day.

11.  New England Patriots: TE Rob Gronkowski was one of
the top rated TE prospects in the draft and should produce
fairly quickly. The Pats focused on depth, especially on
defense, where it has aged significantly the past couple of
seasons.
Outlook: Gronkowski is a must draft, but no earlier
than the mid-point of your draft in standard leagues. WR Taylor
Price could be worth a look as well.

12.  New York Jets: The Jets only had 4 picks in this years
draft, and drafted mainly project players that will contribute
later this season or next season.
Outlook: Nothing to see
here, please disperse.

13.  Oakland Raiders: I cannot believe that I am saying this,
but the Raiders had one of the best drafts in the league. They
spent 6 of their 9 picks on the defensive side of the ball, most
notable are LB Rolando McClain and DE Lamarr Houston.
Two offensive tackles (Jared Veldheer and Bruce Campbell)
should improve the QB protection as well as the running
game. WR Jacoby Ford was a Raider typical pick at that
position (very fast, questionable hands).
Outlook: With Jason
Campbell at QB, Ford may be worth a late round flier. Notch
up the RB Darren McFadden with the added depth at tackle,
and notch up the defense into the top third thanks to the talent
taken in the draft.

14.  Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers had a league high 10
draft picks this, which is good since they had many holes to fill.
Four of their first 5 picks were on the offensive line. WR
Emmanuel Sanders was drafted as Hines Ward's future
replacement. RB Jonathan Dwyer looks to be the front runner
as the goal line back.
Outlook: Sanders and Dwyer are great
picks in dynasty leagues, and could be worth a look in deeper
leagues. Watch their progress throughout training camp. The
Steelers running game should be improved with the influx of
talent in the draft.

15.  San Diego Chargers: RB Ryan Mathews will be asked
to take over for LT. Depth was added to the defensive lines.
Outlook: Mathews is easily a good number 2 back.

16.  Tennessee Titans: Much depth was added to a talented
roster. WR’s Damian Williams could become the 4th receiver
out of camp.
Outlook: Nothing worth grabbing on draft day,
but watch Williams as he progresses through camp.
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